Nothing to Hide Here.

By: Mauro | May 14th, 2008

São Paulo Futebol Clube vs. Fluminense Football Club (Estadio Morumbi, São Paulo, Brazil)

LIVE @ 5:30 pm PST on Fox Sports Español.

These two teams know each other very well. Having seen each other many times in the Brasilierao and in the Copa do Brasil, there are not many secrets in this tie. The only thing certain is that only one Brazilian club will qualify for the Semis.

São Paulo, still a candidate to win it all, in my opinion, despite their lackluster play, have not been able to really get the most out of their midfield like they did in last year’s Libertadores but their plan has been, up ’til now anyway, to win on the technical abilities of their individual players. They haven’t been able to play as a team but have been able to have a few players hook up sporadically to create chances on goal.

All this, however, could fly out the window when they take the pitch against their countrymen. Not unlike the San Lorenzo – River tie in the round of 16, I could see São Paulo come out and stomp Fluminense because it’s a Brazilian derby within the confines of the Libertadores. And São Paulo simply have the players to do it, if only they could manage to put together a solid match.

São Paulo are coming into this match after putting away fellow three-time winners Nacional de Montevideo in the round of 16, drawing 0-0 in Uruguay and winning 2-0 at the Morumbi. Before that, they won their group, not with authority as they had good results but failed to create the gap that most people, including myself, expected them to be able to create in that particular group.

São Paulo will be able to count on Adriano up front, he missed this last weekend’s opening loss to Gremio in the Brasileirao, along with Aloisio. Hugo was rested at the weekend so he would be fresh for tonight’s match and SPFC coach Muricy Ramalho is waiting for game time to see if Jorge Wagner is ready to play since he has been nursing an injury.

Look for Adriano to be a big factor as he has been in all of São Paulo’s matches up to this point.

Fluminense, on the other hand, is coming into this match having put away Colombian Atlético Nacional over two legs. 2-1 in Colombia and 1-0 in Brazil. Flu was far and away the most successful team in the group stage winning 4 of their 6 matches and drawing once and losing only once. Basically, Flu has an away win where São Paulo had managed two away draws.

Fluminense is coming off a draw in their opening match of the Brasileirao, against Atlético Mineiro in their stadium, the Mineirão in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Dodo is again available for this match now that he is recovered from his injury. He appears to be fighting for a spot on the starting squad with Arouca. He may even be able to come on for Cicero should Flu decide to set up with two strikers. Still, I think he’ll be coming off the bench. Thiago Silva is still injured and will not be able to make this match.

Look for Cicero, Washington, Thiago Neves and Dario Conca to make things tough for the São Paulo’s defense.

Bottom Line: São Paulo are a tough nut to crack at home and have won every match they have played at the Morumbi in the Libertadores. While they play a decidedly more direct, rough style, Fluminense play a more lyrical, flowing style of football. Still Flu are not great on the road and managed an away win in the group stage but that was against Libertad who only managed to win one single match and played something awful.

My pick: 1-1. Flu will come out and get the away goal and São Paulo will find a way to level out the affair via an Adriano or Aloisio wonder-goal. The match next week at the Maracaná will decide who will advance into the Semis.

Check the CONMEBOL website for results, stats and upcoming matches.