Flu Look to Beat the Favorites.

By: Mauro | May 21st, 2008

Fluminense Football Club vs. Sao Paulo Futebol Clube (Estadio Maracaná, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

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In front of a packed house, nearly 70,000 souls, Fluminense look to their ground and their fans to help them overcome the small 1-0 deficit from last week’s match at the Morumbi.

While not an impossible hill to climb, in footballing terms, Flu have to play better more clear, solid football than they did in Sao Paulo last week. Sao Paulo was able to fill the midfield with their players and close up spaces to keep the magic of Dario Conca, who came on in the second half, and Thiago Neves in the middle from hurting the home side.

Flu are coming off a tough loss, in the Brasileirao, to surprising leader Náutico, 2-0 in the same stadium as tonight’s match. Flu coach Renato Gaucho, fielded a team of youngsters mixed with first team substitutes but had little luck with that. Not a good result to have with the match against Sao Paulo on the horizon.

Meanwhile, Sao Paulo also fielded an alternate squad at the weekend, saving their best players for tonight’s match. They fared much better than their opponents tonight, they managed to secure a 1-1 draw against Atlético Paranaense who then fired their coach, Ney Franco, after only two Brasileirao matches.

We’ll have to see if Adriano can give us all a repeat performance of last week’s match where he owned the Fluminense defense. He was literally all over the place, winning in the air, serving up great passes, beating Flu’s man marking and coming back to collect the ball. He had a great, complete game. With that said, Flu’s coach, Renato Gaucho, is making a mistake with trying to stop just Adriano.

Adriano has come out, he must be playing well because he’s had a lot to say to the press lately, and said that he’s looking forward to his return to Serie A with Inter to silence all the critics that were rough on him before he left. Also, he stated that he agreed with Juan Roman Riquelme, who said last week that Sao Paulo is the favorite to win this competition. “If I continue to play as I have up ’til now, trying to help my squad find ways to win, Sao Paulo is the favorite to win the Copa Libertadores.” My feeling is that Adriano should be grateful to still have a job. I can say with certainty that if I had a drinking problem and was out with loose women often and it was all over the news, my boss would definitely shit can me. Just an opinion.

Look for Sao Paulo to play a counter-attacking style and take advantage of Flu’s desperation to score to bring them level. Flu will most likely open up at the back in their search. Look for Hernanes (budding player with a possible future in Europe) Wagner and Dagoberto to have some influence in this match as well as keeper Rogerio Ceni.

Flu will not change their style of play, they should come out and intend to share the ball looking for Washington or Dodo(if he gets the start) up front. Conca, Thiago Silva and Cícero will be pulling the strings in the midfield.

Flu are able to count on, returning from injury, Thiago Silva and Dodo, who was in Switzerland clearing up a doping charge. Both could be very important to Flu’s chances tonight, Dodo scoring an all important goal and Thiago Silva possibly helping to shut down Adriano.

Bottom Line: Fluminense are the home side here and will be coming out guns blazing looking to score. Sao Paulo will come out much more conservatively and tactically serene. They have no rush to win this match right away and will bide their time to find the back of the net and lean on Rogerio Ceni to keep them close.

My pick: 1-1, Sao Paulo advance on the away goal. Flu have been fantastic, but the more conservative/defensive, lackluster style will prevail here. Sao Paulo will grind out the result Chelsea-style over the free flowing, pure football style of Fluminense. And I will shed a tear for another blow to good, offensive, risk-taking football.

Check the CONMEBOL website for results, stats and upcoming matches.