Another Maracanázo?

By: Mauro | June 4th, 2008

Fluminense Football Club vs. Club Atlético Boca Juniors (Estadio Mararcaná, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

LIVE @ 5:30pm PST on Fox Sports Español. Gamecast here. Online TV here.

Despite being the strong favorite to advance to the finals, Boca Juniors still have quite the hurdle to jump with Fluminense in their path. With all this speculation about whether or not Juan Román Riquelme will play tonight and a few other changes to the squad, Boca are looking to try to come out to the Maracaná Stadium to score three goals and hope they can hold Fluminense to zero.

It’s no secret. Fluminense can qualify for the finals if they just hold Boca to a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw. A 2-2 draw will give us penalties, I’m sure none of us want to see another match decided by penalties, and a win of any kind for Flu, eliminates Boca.

There’s been lots of speculation about whether Riquelme is going to play. I can tell you right here, right now, there is no way in hell that Riquelme is going to sit this one out. He did practice yesterday before the team made the trip to Rio and he seemed to be responding quite normally so I would just forget about him either sitting this one out or playing only a small portion of the match.

Since the last match of the group stage, Boca has been in the position where they must win. They has to win in the group stage against Maracaibo by a large margin and they did. 3-0 that day. Then in the round of sixteen, second leg, they had to beat Cruzeiro in Belo Horizonte and they did, 2-1. And lastly, in the quarter-finals, second leg, they had to travel to Atlas and win on their ground by at least three goals (identical situation as the one they are in now) and they did, 3-0 that night as well.

Boca are still only four points from Argentine Primera league leaders River Plate and with a major debacle (stranger things have happened) they could catch them should they win their remaining matches and River lose their remaining matches. Estudiantes is also two points back, but again would need to drop some serious points.

For tonight’s match, Boca coach is starting Fabián Vargas instead of Cristian Chavéz and Hugo Ibarra in place of Jonathan Maidana. Remember that Vargas offers him a more defensive, holding midfielder and Ibarra offers more of an overlapping left back than Maidana.

Boca is lethal at this point in this competition. Since the year 2000, they’ve played 26 elimination ties and have won 23 of them. Against Brazilian opposition, they are perfect, eight of eight since the year 2000, and have not lost a series against Brazilian opposition since 1991. Numbers that must be unsettling for Fluminense fans, players and club directors

So Fluminense have plenty of respect for Boca but they need to be sure not to have too much respect. Flu has far more in their favor and have been a smart team, well organized tactically and they play a nice Brazilian style of football, something that I don’t see changing in this match. I see a more offensive minded Fluminense squad that will present a semi-final worthy of the stadium and their fans.

Flu have beaten one of the weaker teams in Atlético Nacional of Colombia in the round of sixteen and one of the stronger teams in Sao Paulo in the quarters, finishing each of the ties with wins at home.

Flu are in the bottom of the Brasileirao but that’s due to giving their starting team a break for the local league matches. Once the Libertadores is over, they’ll be able to play some catch up.

Flu will be making only one change to their line up with respect to the squad that took the field last week. Mauricio will be coming off and Ygor will be coming on. There’s also a question of whether Dodo will be taking Cicero’s place on the forward line.

Bottom Line: Flu are the home side and it still carries some weight even though many would argue against that. They are a tough side to beat as they proved against Sao Paulo. Should they win tonight, they will have eliminated the two top contenders for the title. Boca have had great success in Brazil in this competition in recent years and are a squad to respect, even in your very own stadium.

My pick: 4-1 to Boca. Boca will prove to be too much and too smart for Fluminense. Boca have been unstoppable in this year’s Copa Libertadores and I think that the teams that could have eliminated them have been eliminated already. In other words, none of the last four teams left in the competition can beat Boca over two legs, in my estimation.

Be sure to check the CONMEBOL website for any and all information regarding the Copa Libertadores, like stats, results and upcoming matches. It even has a pull down menu where you can check out past editions of the Libertadores.